The Dangerous Rise of Mike Huckabee

Dear fellow Kossacks,

Take a second from thinking about the Democratic race and shudder at the rise of Mike Huckabee in the most recent Iowa polls. It is always comforting, to me at least, that the Republicans seemed dead set on nominating one of two men, Mitt Romney or Rudy Giuliani, next year. Romney, a Mormon who started embracing conservtive values last year, or Giuliani, the pro-choice, pro-gay, anti-gun thrice divorced mayor. Talk about not exciting the base that re-elected W. in 2004. But now, things are changing and it's time to talk seriously about our possible opponent next November.

In case you didn't know, Huckabee was the Governor of Arkansas from 1996 to 2007. He was only the third Republican governor of that state since Reconstruction. Oh and, by the way, he is a Baptist minister. During his term as governer, he raised taxes on gas, cigarettes, and alcohol. The Club for Growth believes Huckabee is a liberal because, they accuse, he increased state spending by 65.3% during his two terms in office.  

"He's one of them. He's an evangelical," a senior strategist for a rival campaign said in explaining Huckabee's strength among conservatives in Iowa. "What they don't understand yet is that he is a fiscal liberal. They haven't figured that out."

Or do they?

An ordained Baptist minister with a Southern drawl, Huckabee and his campaign believe that much of his newfound support comes from the state's conservative Christians, many of whom lost their candidate when Brownback dropped out in October. Some estimates say evangelicals could make up 40 percent of GOP caucus attendees.

"That is his base. You consolidate that base in a year when the turnout is going to be pretty low, that's a pretty good base to have," said one longtime Iowa Republican who asked to remain anonymous to talk frankly about the candidates. He said religious voters had been disappointed by Thompson's campaign and the decision of former House speaker Newt Gingrich (Ga.) not to run this year. "Huckabee is kind of what's left standing."

So while the main rivals for the Republican nomination struggle to paint themselves as staunch conservatives, a staunch Evangelical liberal is rising in the polls despite their attacks exposing his liberal fiscal record. Is this because these Evangelicals are blind to his economic beliefs or are they really ready for a "compassionate conservative?"

The main critique of the elevation of Huckabee into the "top tier" of Romney and Giuliani is that he has no money. However, when you have no money, the only other two things that can help you compete is a crazy base and positive media coverage. Right now, it seems like Huckabee is getting love from both.

Giuliani's strategy to win the GOP nomination is no secret: survive Iowa, survive New Hampshire, sweep Super Tuesday on Feb. 5. Romney's has always been to hold steady in IA and NH and then try to split Super Tuesday with Giuliani and see what happens. Now, if Huckabee takes over in IA, it is Romney, not Giuliani, who is in trouble. If anyone besides Huckabee himself is thrilled with his recent polling, it has to be Rudy.

However, in reality, Rudy is the one who should be afraid. To him, the path toward the nomination always revolved around a KO of Romney. But if Huckabee wins IA, it may be him, not Giuliani, who takes down the Romney machine. With a win under his belt and money and media coverage flowing his way, Huckabee will be a contender and the GOP will split between the social moderate wing led by Giuliani and the Evangelical wing led by Huckabee. If history has any bearing on today, my guess is that the Evangelicals get down and dirty, pull a South Carolina circa 2000, and smear the scandal-prone Giuliani out of the race.

The deconstruction of Rudy Giuliani was supposed to happen at the hands of a Democrat, not a fellow Republican. Deconstructing Huckabee will be much different. He has experience. He has a following. He has never been divorced and, as far as we know, he has always been socially conservative unlike Mitt Romney. He is, like it or not, a true Evangelical conservative and, believe it or not, this is the worst candidate we can face come November 2008.

Two months ago, I would laugh if you told me the Republicans were going to win the general election. Now, with the rise of Mike Huckabee, I am starting to worry. Be afraid of Mike Huckabee, for if anyone can rally a broken Republican base, it's him.