Four years after losing to Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush, former Vice President Walter Mondale seemed to be a safe bet to win the Democratic nomination. However, in that year, Mondale faced challenges from very interesting candidates. The first was Jesse Jackson, the renown civil rights activist. The second was John Glenn of astronaut fame. The third, and final, big-name candidate was George McGovern, the Democratic nominee from 1972. Interestingly enough, it was McGovern's '72 campaign manager, Colorado Senator Gary Hart, who eventually led the insurgent challenge to Mondale.
If there was any indication of Mondale's support, one must look no further than Iowa. In 1984, Mondale won the Iowa caucus with 49% compared to Hart's 17%, McGovern's 10%, Glenn's 4%, and Jackson's 2%. Heading into New Hampshire, it seemed as if the coronation was all but certain.
Then, like this year, a funny thing happened in New Hampshire - the candidate thought to be all but banished to "also-ran" status pulled off a shocking upset. Hart defeated Mondale 37% to 27% with Glenn coming in a distant third with 12% and Jackson a distant fourth with 5%. With Hart's surprise victory, the race for the Democratic nomination heated up.
Unlike in 2008, the 1984 contest went directly (with an unimportant stop in Vermont, which Hart won easily) to Super Tuesday. The states in play that day were Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Nevada, Oklahoma, and Washington. Mondale won Alabama and Georgia while Hart swept the rest of the states. Still undecided, it seemed as if the contest would be decided in New York on April 3.
From Super Tuesday on, the contest remained a see-saw between the two candidates. While Mondale won NY on April 3, Hart won WI. A week later, Mondale scored a large victory in PA. Nevertheless, the contest continued as Hart managed to secure Western and smaller states over time. On June 5, Hart even won California. All in all, as everyone knows, Mondale was able to win the nominate largely thanks to superdelegate strength. In the end, Mondale had 2,191 delegates to Hart's 1,200.
Does Gary Hart's loss in 1984 mean anything to Barack Obama in 2008? Maybe.
Hart was the self-proclaimed candidate of "New Ideas." In a moment in one of their debates, Mondale famously asked Hart, "Where's the beef?" The idea that Hart was all style, no substance certainly plays heavily this time around with the Clintons, at every chance they get, trying to play upon Mondale's famous line.
But Barack Obama is not Gary Hart. Hart may have been ahead of his time on some issues, but he in no way set himself up to be the kind of transformational leader Obama has. In that respect, they are very different.
However, they do share some similarities. For one, both Hart and Obama were/are locked in a drawn-out battle for delegates with Democrats popular with the party establishment. In all likelihood, the score between Clinton and Obama will be tied at 2-2 after South Carolina. Currently, without superdelegates, Obama is actually leading Clinton 38 delegates to 36 delegates. There are 45 delegates at stake in South Carolina.
But, regardless of what happens in South Carolina, this race is heading into Super Tuesday a split-decision. So what happens then?
Gary Hart essentially won Super Tuesday in 1984 but the two biggest states in play this Super Tuesday, California and New York, happened on different days and, typical of that race, were split between Hart and Mondale respectively.
California and New York, as well as 20 other states: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Dakota,Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Utah.
According to the Washington Post, Hillary has a four-state Super Tuesday strategy that she hopes will pay off:
Clinton has been focused on California, New York, New Jersey and Arkansas since her defeat in the Iowa caucuses earlier this month, betting that she can sweep states where her name recognition and popularity are strong.
The logic seems simple: She represents New York in the Senate, and New Jersey is next door; she was the first lady of Arkansas for a decade; and California will be the biggest prize when 22 states vote on Feb. 5. But in a system that awards delegates by congressional district, with some worth more than others, the calculation is far from straightforward, and Clinton backers fear that the setup could boost Sen. Barack Obama if he fares well in populous corners of key states.
There is no doubt that wins in all four of those states would bode quite well for her chances of winning the nomination. Combined, those states account for 744 delegates.
Obama, on the other hand, has a plan of his own:
The Obama campaign's heavy emphasis on grass-roots organizing, which served it so well in Iowa, has led it to target the six states that will hold caucuses rather than primaries on Feb. 5. These are typically lightly attended affairs, but they could deliver big returns if Obama can follow his Iowa model of identifying a pool of supporters, including nontraditional participants such as college students and independents, and methodically turning them out.
The big three in that category are Colorado, Kansas and Minnesota. But the campaign also is active in North Dakota, where Obama has three offices; Alaska, where he has two; and Idaho, where he has one. To help balance out Clinton's edge with Democratic Party faithful, Obama is seeking endorsements in all six of the caucus states and may be close to securing the nod of Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius, sources close to the campaign said. (The Clinton team counters that the Feb. 5 caucus states are relatively unimportant, accounting for just 12 percent of the delegates who will be awarded that day.)
Those six states account for only 203 delegates. Just those states, of course, are simply not enough.
But if the Obama campaign strategy in New York is any indication of the national Super Tuesday strategy, he could be in decent shape:
The campaign is also tackling the No. 2 prize of New York by congressional district, seeking to capitalize on a rule that would grant Obama two-fifths of all delegates if he can hit the 31 percent mark in each district. "We don't plan to win New York, but we do plan to take a lot of delegates out of there," Hildebrand said.
If Barack Obama can survive Super Tuesday, which I think simple math says he can if he wins his target states and some others AND can split some states like CA and NY with her, I think he can win the nomination in a way that Hart never could: through superdelegates.
Just about the only person to endorse Gary Hart in 1984 was Warren Beatty. Obama, with every win and every speech, gains respect from the establishment of the party. And if he can split Super Tuesday with Hillary and her organization, he can prove to many doubters that he is for real and that his movement in worth backing. Without the superdelegates, I'm afraid later wins simply will not matter.
