Pro Athletes Predict 2008 Election? Maybe

In this week's issue of Sports Illustrated, they have a very interesting article entitled "Athletic Supporters: Sports stars weigh in with presidential picks." The article begins:

Last Week SI conducted a poll or nearly 350 players in the three major in-season leagues - MLB, the NHL and the NBA - asking them which candidate they support in the presidential election. (Only eligible voters were surveyed, and they were guaranteed anonymity.)

While this may seem like a gimmicky poll of pro athletes, the demographics of each of these sports is quite representational of the 2008 Presidential race thus far.

Here is what they said:

OBAMA

FARED WELL WITH The NBA, where he topped McCain by a nearly 8-to-1 margin.

RESONANT ISSUES Race - Being African-American weighed in his favor for many. "That's a factor," said one NBA player. "But at the end of the day, I want somebody who's going to look out for all Americans. Charisma - "He'll bring back prestige to the leader of the free world," said one baseball player. "I think Obama is the JFK of this generation." Said a hockey player, "I see him on Oprah, and I think he's a sincere guy." Change - "What's going on in politics now isn't working" said one NBA player, echoing the message of many.

POTENTIAL HANGUPS Misinformed Voters - "It kind of rhymes with Osama," said one supporter. A McCain backer said, "The country is not going to elect a Muslim." When it was pointed out that Obama's a Christian, the player said, "He converted." Really? "Positive."

CLINTON

FARED WELL WITH Fans of the 42nd President. Nearly all her supporters - and, since the respondents were wealthy males, which isn't exactly her base, there weren't many - said they were backing her because of their respect for her husband.

RESONANT ISSUES Did we mention the surname? - "I want Billary in there," said her sole NHL backer. Said an NBA player, "Bill Clinton was the best president we ever had, and I'm sure he'll still be calling the shots if Hillary is elected." Health Care - "We neeed a national health care program, and she can get it done," said a baseball player. (One NBA player, however, preferred Obama's plan and even backed a tax hike to fund it.)

POTENTIAL HANGUPS Clinton fatigue - "The Clintons had their time," said an NBA Obama backer. Her gender - "The country is not going to elect a woman," said one baseball player, "especially when she cries on TV."

McCAIN

FARED WELL WITH Baseball and hockey players, as well as those fed up with the Democrats. "He's better than those other two nitwits," said one of his NHL supporters.

RESONANT ISSUES Taxes - Said one hockey player, "My wife told me I'm supposed to pick - what's it called? - the fiscal conservative." In other words (from a baseball player): "Look at the tax bracket we're in." Said another MLBer, "Looks like I'm voting for McCain. Why? I like my money, and I don't like socialism." His military record - "We have a war on, and he was a war guy," said one baseball player. Said another, "He spent time in a prison camp, and he's risen to U.S> senator. That's the American Dream, right?"

POTENTIAL HANGUPS Age - One NBA player explained why he's backing Obama: "He's not a 71-year-old Republican." Bush backlash - "McCain would just replace Bush, and I don't want that," said one undecided hockey player.

And the final results?

MLB (207 respondents):
Obama - 48
Clinton - 17
McCain - 101
Other - 5
Undecided - 36

NBA (95 respondents):
Obama - 60
Clinton - 4
McCain - 8
Other - 1
Undecided - 20

NHL (45 respondents):
Obama - 7
Clinton - 1
McCain - 23
Other - 2
Undecided - 13

TOTAL:
McCain - 132
Obama - 115
Undecided - 69
Clinton - 22
Other - 8

So let's take a look at the demographics of each league......

MLB:

At the start of the 2007 season, there were 750 players on opening day rosters, of which were:

   * 565 (75%) U.S.-born (including Puerto Rico):
         o 464 (62%) Caucasian
         o 68 (9%) African-American
         o 33 (4.5%) Hispanic

   * 185 (25%) foreign-born:
         o 149 (20%) Latin American (75 from Dominican Republic; 47 from Venezuela; 10 from Mexico; 6 from Panama; 2 from Colombia; 2 from the Netherlands Antilles; 1 from Nicaragua)
         o 18 (2.4%) Asian (14 from Japan; 3 from South Korea; 1 from Taiwan)
         o 18 (2.6%) Other (15 from Canada; 3 from Germany)

The NBA, on the other hand, is 83% black.

Compared to the NBA, the NHL currently has 17 black players.

So what does this mean?

For one, Obama continues to dominate in the black community. Hillary, once married to the so-called "first black President", got a mere 4 votes in the NBA.

McCain beats Obama in the MLB almost 2:1. Could this signal McCain's fabled support of Hispanics?

I'm not sociologist but I found this poll quite interesting (perhaps more interesting than any poll coming out of PA or IN) I figured I would share it with the community. Obama has made substantial ground in the black community over the course of this campaign and it is paying off quite well  for him in states in the south. But some people may point to a poll such as this in which he only wins the NBA that he is not quite transcending race the way he would like to. Clinton's performance (or lack thereof) among white males should be duly noted when it comes to judging who would be the best general election candidate. While white male Democrats might be showing up at the polls for her in a state like Ohio, it doesn't mean they will do the same when her opponent is a white male. If Obama faces McCain, which blast-from-the-past storyline will play more among white males: JFK charisma or Vietnam war hero? It seems that males are going more for the 'Nam story. Finally, it was undecideds that came in third behind McCain and Obama in the total poll. Who will reach out to these voters and how will they do it?

These questions will all be answered in short order. But, in the mean time, it is interesting to see where our sports stars stand on the 2008 election.